欧盟“2020年，3个20%”决议（3 times 20 by 2020），昭示着一个新时代的来临，风能在所有未来战略中都扮演重要角色。在过去几年间，人们对气候变化和全球能源供应安全等问题关注不足。所有最新的相关调查和研究都在本质上得出了这个相同结论。人们发现，气候和能源供应问题比此前所设想的更为严重迫切，这也引发了众多政界人士的关注。不管是在国内还是在国际上，决策者们日益警觉起来，并着手采取行动。对于投资者来说，风力并不是无需任何顾虑的能量来源。
尽管如此，最终欧洲被认为是引导人们重新关注能源和环境观念的先驱，特别是德国。2007年欧盟的一项决议证明了这一点，该决议同意将可再生能源在初级能源消费（PEC）中的比重提高到20%。德国各执政党派达成的联合协议，规定德国的目标是在2010年以前，将可再生能源在PEC中的比重提高到 4.2%，到2020年提高到10%。2010年，可再生能源在发电中的比重将达到12.5%左右，在2020年增长到20%。由于2004年德国《可再生能源法》（Erneuerbare-Energien- Gesetz (EEG), or Renewable Energy Sources Act）的修订和其后引发的刺激作用，在2006年，可再生能源已经占到了德国PEC的 5.8%和发电的12%。
Up to 2015, the wind energy market is set to grow by about 20% per year (10.12.2007)
Boasting 28% of global installed capacity, Germany is the leading market ahead of, Spain, the US, India, Denmark and China, says a new report by Deutsche Bank.
wind energyMoreover, Germany is the biggest maker of windpower systems, for the German industry produces the lion’s share (37%) of all the systems and components. In 2006, installed wind capacity expanded by 26% around the globe. Up to 2015, the wind energy market is set to grow by about 20% per year, i.e. capacities will quintuple by then. The biggest growth stimuli will come from countries outside Europe. China, the US and India are likely to post unfettered growth of up to 30% p.a., while Europe trails slightly behind at 15% p.a.
These global growth segments offer substantial potential for the German industry. If there were reference systems off the coast of Germany or on the German mainland, other countries would be encouraged to follow suit. Looking ahead, three development paths in the wind industry sound particularly promising. The growth segments of export business and repowering are likely to see the emergence of standard solutions.
Offshore wind farms will be more demanding owing to the large funding volumes required and the technical risks involved. The ongoing dependence on subsidies represents a major challenge for the industry. The wind industry is growing more attractive all the time. Entry-level investments and takeover activity show the greater interest being taken by traditional energy companies and could mark the start of a wave of consolidation. The new market structures will help to mobilise the funds needed for major investments – and bolster the environmental benefits of this growing field of alternative energy.
“3 times 20 by 2020” decision marks the dawning of a new age. Wind energy plays a big role in all future strategies. Over the past few years, people tended to pay insufficient attention to the issues of climate change and the security of the global energy supply. All the latest relevant research work and studies arrive in essence at this same conclusion. The finding that the climate and supply problems are more serious and more urgent than previously assumed has now also got through to many politicians. Nationally and internationally, policymakers are increasingly showing their alarm and taking action. For investors, wind power is anything but a trouble-free source of energy.
According to the “3 times 20 by 2020” decision of the European Union the volume of CO2 emissions is to be reduced by (at least) 20%, energy efficiency increased on the back of energy savings by 20% and the share of renewables in total energy consumption boosted to 20% (2005: 6.6%). The agreement marks the dawning of a new age, even though not all of the details have been hammered out as yet. For example, it remains to be seen which countries will contribute to the targets, and to what extent.
Meanwhile, the research findings and the new commitment of EU politicians are clearly showing an impact. No wonder that at many of the subsequent, equally high-level meetings held this past year – from the G8 summit in Heiligendamm and the Council of Ministers in Brussels to the Energy Summit III hosted by the German chancellor in Berlin – debate focused on the revision and/or modernisation of energy and environmental policy.
Practically all the future strategies up for discussion both nationally and internationally are based on renewables as major pillars of a more sustainable energy supply going forward – with, of course, some sources of energy being more sustainable and others less so. Even countries such as the United States and China, which so far have tended to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, are starting to warm to the idea of renewables.
At the end of the day, though, the pioneering role in refocusing energy and environmental concepts has been assumed by Europe, and particularly Germany. This is documented by the 2007 EU agreement to raise the share of renewables in primary energy consumption (PEC) to 20%. The coalition agreement between Germany’s ruling parties stipulates that Germany targets a 4.2% share of renewables in PEC by 2010, and 10% by 2020. The share of renewables in electricity generation is to reach around 12.5% in 2010, rising to 20% by 2020. Thanks not least to the amendment of the Erneuerbare-Energien- Gesetz (EEG), or Renewable Energy Sources Act, in 2004 and the stimuli that it triggered, renewables already accounted for 5.8% of PEC and 12% of electricity generation in 2006.
Given the dynamic progress made so far, a major study from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) concludes that Germany can achieve readings of 16% of PEC and 27% of electricity generation by 2020. The government’s new climate and energy programme targets a 25-30% share of renewables in electricity production by 2020. Wind energy is to play a major role at both the EU and the national level in achieving the proposed increases in renewable energy output.
For investors, wind power is anything but a trouble-free source of energy. Therefore, an exacting, comprehensive risk evaluation is absolutely essential in order to rule out any (unwelcome) surprises. The still fledgling industry has only had a few years of experience with the technology in the field. Practice shows that gearboxes, generators, rotor blades and even the technologically rather unsophisticated concrete bases are more vulnerable to permanent loads than originally assumed. Insurers are therefore well advised to integrate revision clauses into their contracts. These should provide, for example, that the operators check and replace components subject to wear, such as gearboxes, at regular intervals (e.g. every five years).
Condition monitoring systems are a help. Of course, though, the higher system costs are a negative for the business investment analysis. Besides, the global boom in the sector often entails long delivery times for unscheduled procurement of replacement parts. Looking ahead, three development paths in the wind industry sound promising. The risks are not spread evenly, however: At first glance, repowering is a fascinating market of the future. In principle, the substitution of state-of-the-art large-scale systems for outdated small plants allows a better wind harvest. At the same time, of course, the wear-and-tear on individual systems and thus the risk of disturbances and downtimes rises with every increase in their height.
By contrast, the insurance needs for all the new windpower facilities together do not necessarily have to be any higher than those for the many smaller onshore systems replaced: standard solutions have already emerged for the established onshore projects, including promotional loans (Deutsche Ausgleichsbank, KfW), the registration of easements and the maintenance of a minimum liquidity reserve. Export business also holds promise of growth.
Other countries are increasingly looking to wind power, and German companies have carved out a lead with their know-how in this forward-looking technology over the past few years. Good ways to gain a foothold in export markets are to seek typical export financing such as venture capital, enlist the support of large companies (e.g. from the utilities segment) or else sell windpower funds that have proved their worth abroad in the home market. For funds in particular, determinants such as political security, feed-in security, and currency and exchange-rate security are of major relevance.
The growth segment of offshore wind farms typically features very high funding volumes regularly topping EUR 1 bn along with particularly extensive technical risks. The technical problems already being observed in the onshore segment will probably occur much more frequently and with greater magnitude in offshore applications, according to critics. Similar expectations have prompted some wind generators to take a more circumspect approach. These include such prominent makers as General Electric and Enercon. Others continue to put their money on the offshore segment. Because of the large funding volumes involved alone the risk/return ratio needs to be scrutinised very closely for project-specific risks and for the capabilities of all project members such as operators and sponsors.
Thanks to the EEG there are virtually no market or marketing risks for wind power. The government has meanwhile assigned the job of providing the necessary network infrastructure to the established electric utilities; this is not an issue for the financial industry. The environmental risks (such as potential dangers for specific animal populations) have so far not been fully researched, but they do seem to be manageable. Problems with offshore systems may result from various factors ranging from the more complex foundation work and higher material wear from salt water, right up to the shorter weather-related time frame for upkeep and maintenance.
The financial industry will avoid risks that it cannot control; these include budget cost overruns, completion risk and the overall functioning of the technology. From a financing standpoint it is desirable to see a contractual framework that is as tightly knit as possible in which the risks – say along the technical interfaces – are adequately diversified, balanced and optimised. A great deal of potential is likely to lie in the formation of building and operating companies with expertise from a spectrum including experienced systems engineers, wind farm developers and major electric utilities. source: Deutsche Bank
xueliang (01/28/2008)
2015年之前全球风能市场年均增长20%
德意志银行最新发布的报告显示，德国正引领全球风能市场，其风力发电装机容量占全球总量的28%，位列西班牙、美国、印度、丹麦和中国之前。此外，德国还是全球最大的风力发电设备制造国，其产值占据了全球风力发电系统和组件生产的37%份额。
2006年，全球风力发电装机容量增长了26%。到2015年，风能市场将会保持每年大约20%的增速，也就是说，届时装机容量将达到目前的5倍。欧盟以外的国家对风能市场的增长贡献最大。中国、美国和印度的增速将达到每年30%，欧盟以年均15%的增幅紧随其后。
风能市场的全球增长为德国产业界提供了巨大的潜力。如果在德国的海岸和陆上树立风力发电标杆的话，其他国家将争相效仿。展望未来，风能产业有三条发展路径充满希望。出口贸易和扩容改建也会尽快出台标准的解决方案。
由于需投入大量资金和涉及技术风险，海岸风力发电场的要求更为苛刻。目前该行业对补贴的依赖是产业界面临的最大挑战。一直以来，风能产业都变得备受关注。启动级投资和收购活动表明，传统能源企业对该行业的兴趣日益增长，这标志着一个整合浪潮的开始。新的市场结构将有助于调节重大投资所需的资金，并将提高风能这种日益增长的替代能源的环境效益。
欧盟“2020年，3个20%”决议（3 times 20 by 2020），昭示着一个新时代的来临，风能在所有未来战略中都扮演重要角色。在过去几年间，人们对气候变化和全球能源供应安全等问题关注不足。所有最新的相关调查和研究都在本质上得出了这个相同结论。人们发现，气候和能源供应问题比此前所设想的更为严重迫切，这也引发了众多政界人士的关注。不管是在国内还是在国际上，决策者们日益警觉起来，并着手采取行动。对于投资者来说，风力并不是无需任何顾虑的能量来源。
依据“2020年，3个20%”决议，到 2020年，欧盟二氧化碳排放量将削减（至少）20%，节能基础上的能效将提高20%，可再生能源在总体能源消耗中的比重将上升到20%（2005年是 6.6%）。这个决议昭示新时代的曙光，尽管并非所有的细节都已敲定。例如，哪些国家将对该目标有所贡献？贡献程度如何？这都有待观察。
同时，相关研究成果和欧盟政治家们的新承诺都清楚地显示了其影响。无怪乎随后举行了那么多同样高级别的会议，诸如在德国海利根达姆（Heiligendamm）举行了G8（八国集团）峰会，欧盟委员会在布鲁塞尔举行了会议，德国总理召集了第三次德国能源峰会。所有的讨论都集中在能源和环境政策的修订及其现代化上。
有些能源可持续性更强，另外一些较弱，实际上，在所有国内、国际的关于未来战略的讨论中，都将可再生能源作为未来更加可持续的能源供应支柱。美国和中国此前一直倾向于采取等待和观望态度，现在它们对可再生能源理念的关注也开始升温。
尽管如此，最终欧洲被认为是引导人们重新关注能源和环境观念的先驱，特别是德国。2007年欧盟的一项决议证明了这一点，该决议同意将可再生能源在初级能源消费（PEC）中的比重提高到20%。德国各执政党派达成的联合协议，规定德国的目标是在2010年以前，将可再生能源在PEC中的比重提高到 4.2%，到2020年提高到10%。2010年，可再生能源在发电中的比重将达到12.5%左右，在2020年增长到20%。由于2004年德国《可再生能源法》（Erneuerbare-Energien- Gesetz (EEG), or Renewable Energy Sources Act）的修订和其后引发的刺激作用，在2006年，可再生能源已经占到了德国PEC的 5.8%和发电的12%。
鉴于目前所取得的动态进展，德国联邦环境、自然保护与核安全部所做的一份重要研究得出结论显示，到2020 年，德国将把可再生能源在PEC中的比重提高到16%，并且将其在发电中的比重提高到27%。德国政府一项新的气候和能源计划的目标是在2020年之前将可再生能源在发电中的份额提高到25%-30%。无论是在欧洲还是在德国国内，风能在完成可再生能源增长计划中都扮演了主要角色。
对于投资者来说，风力不是无需任何顾虑的能量来源。因此，进行严格和全面的风险评估很有必要，以便排除任何意外。尚显稚嫩的产业界，对技术经验的积累年限较短。实践表明，风力发电的变速箱、发电机、发电机叶片和技术上远未成熟的混凝土基座，比最初设想的更易达到永久负载。因此，奉劝投资商们将修订条款加进合同里。例如，合同里面应该规定，运营商应该定期（例如，每5年）检查和更换诸如变速箱这类易于磨损的部件。
风力发电状态监测系统也很有帮助。当然，更高的系统成本对于商业投资分析是个消极因素。另外，全球风能产业的繁荣常常会使不定期订货的替换零部件的交货时间延长。展望未来，风能产业的三种发展路径充满希望。风险并不是均匀扩散的，尽管如此，乍看之下，改装扩容在未来是个非常吸引人的市场。原则上，把过时的小电厂置换成最先进的大规模系统将会使风能产量更高。当然，个别系统的磨损、系统故障的风险和停工时间也会随着发电风车高度的上升而增加。
相比之下，购买所有新风力发电设备所需资金，不一定会高于替换过时的较小系统所费资金，因为建立陆上风力发电工程的标准解决方案已经形成。这其中包括推广贷款（德国调和银行贷款 Deutsche Ausgleichsbank，KfW）、地权注册和维持最低限度的流动储备。出口贸易也将会增长。
其他国家也越来越多地涉足风力发电，不过过去几年间，德国企业在该前瞻性技术领域积累的技术诀窍独领风骚。在出口市场赢得立足点的好办法，就是寻找典型的出口资金融通，诸如获取风险资本，谋求大企业（例如，公共事业部门）的支持，或者在国内市场出售可以证明其海外价值的风力发电基金等。尤其是对于基金来说，政治安全、收购安全、货币和汇率安全具有重要的现实意义。
海岸风力发电场特点就是高额的资金量（常常超过10亿欧元）和极高的技术风险。批评家们认为，陆上风力发电场所发现的技术问题，在海岸风力发电场将会出现得更为频繁并且规模更大。类似的预测已促使一些风能企业采取更为周到的措施，这其中包括GE公司和德国Enercon公司等著名企业。其他企业仍继续将资金投向海岸风力发电场。由于所需资金巨大，对于每个具体项目的风险都要细致计算其风险/回报率，并且对诸如投资商和运营商在内的项目成员的能力也要做认真考察。
《可再生能源法》使风力发电几乎不存在市场和营销风险。德国政府同时也做好了建立风能发电事业所必需的网络基础设施建设；对于金融界来说这也不成问题。环境风险（诸如对特定动物种群的威胁）到目前为止还没有得到充分研究，但似乎也在控制之内。海岸风力发电系统的问题可能由诸多因素产生，例如，基础设施建设更为复杂，盐水对材料的侵蚀更为严重，与天气状况有关的保养和维护周期也会缩短等。
金融界会避免它无法控制的风险，这其中包括预算超支、完工风险和技术的整体运作。从融资的角度看，我们期望看到一个尽量严密的合同框架，在这其中风险能被充分地分解、平衡和优化。拥有专门技术（包括经验丰富的系统工程师）的建设和运营商，再加上风力发电开发商和大型电力事业部门，它们当中蕴藏着有待开发的巨大潜能。
xueliang (01/28/2008)
Up to 2015, the wind energy market is set to grow by about 20% per year (10.12.2007)
Boasting 28% of global installed capacity, Germany is the leading market ahead of, Spain, the US, India, Denmark and China, says a new report by Deutsche Bank.
wind energyMoreover, Germany is the biggest maker of windpower systems, for the German industry produces the lion’s share (37%) of all the systems and components. In 2006, installed wind capacity expanded by 26% around the globe. Up to 2015, the wind energy market is set to grow by about 20% per year, i.e. capacities will quintuple by then. The biggest growth stimuli will come from countries outside Europe. China, the US and India are likely to post unfettered growth of up to 30% p.a., while Europe trails slightly behind at 15% p.a.
These global growth segments offer substantial potential for the German industry. If there were reference systems off the coast of Germany or on the German mainland, other countries would be encouraged to follow suit. Looking ahead, three development paths in the wind industry sound particularly promising. The growth segments of export business and repowering are likely to see the emergence of standard solutions.
Offshore wind farms will be more demanding owing to the large funding volumes required and the technical risks involved. The ongoing dependence on subsidies represents a major challenge for the industry. The wind industry is growing more attractive all the time. Entry-level investments and takeover activity show the greater interest being taken by traditional energy companies and could mark the start of a wave of consolidation. The new market structures will help to mobilise the funds needed for major investments – and bolster the environmental benefits of this growing field of alternative energy.
“3 times 20 by 2020” decision marks the dawning of a new age. Wind energy plays a big role in all future strategies. Over the past few years, people tended to pay insufficient attention to the issues of climate change and the security of the global energy supply. All the latest relevant research work and studies arrive in essence at this same conclusion. The finding that the climate and supply problems are more serious and more urgent than previously assumed has now also got through to many politicians. Nationally and internationally, policymakers are increasingly showing their alarm and taking action. For investors, wind power is anything but a trouble-free source of energy.
According to the “3 times 20 by 2020” decision of the European Union the volume of CO2 emissions is to be reduced by (at least) 20%, energy efficiency increased on the back of energy savings by 20% and the share of renewables in total energy consumption boosted to 20% (2005: 6.6%). The agreement marks the dawning of a new age, even though not all of the details have been hammered out as yet. For example, it remains to be seen which countries will contribute to the targets, and to what extent.
Meanwhile, the research findings and the new commitment of EU politicians are clearly showing an impact. No wonder that at many of the subsequent, equally high-level meetings held this past year – from the G8 summit in Heiligendamm and the Council of Ministers in Brussels to the Energy Summit III hosted by the German chancellor in Berlin – debate focused on the revision and/or modernisation of energy and environmental policy.
Practically all the future strategies up for discussion both nationally and internationally are based on renewables as major pillars of a more sustainable energy supply going forward – with, of course, some sources of energy being more sustainable and others less so. Even countries such as the United States and China, which so far have tended to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, are starting to warm to the idea of renewables.
At the end of the day, though, the pioneering role in refocusing energy and environmental concepts has been assumed by Europe, and particularly Germany. This is documented by the 2007 EU agreement to raise the share of renewables in primary energy consumption (PEC) to 20%. The coalition agreement between Germany’s ruling parties stipulates that Germany targets a 4.2% share of renewables in PEC by 2010, and 10% by 2020. The share of renewables in electricity generation is to reach around 12.5% in 2010, rising to 20% by 2020. Thanks not least to the amendment of the Erneuerbare-Energien- Gesetz (EEG), or Renewable Energy Sources Act, in 2004 and the stimuli that it triggered, renewables already accounted for 5.8% of PEC and 12% of electricity generation in 2006.
Given the dynamic progress made so far, a major study from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) concludes that Germany can achieve readings of 16% of PEC and 27% of electricity generation by 2020. The government’s new climate and energy programme targets a 25-30% share of renewables in electricity production by 2020. Wind energy is to play a major role at both the EU and the national level in achieving the proposed increases in renewable energy output.
For investors, wind power is anything but a trouble-free source of energy. Therefore, an exacting, comprehensive risk evaluation is absolutely essential in order to rule out any (unwelcome) surprises. The still fledgling industry has only had a few years of experience with the technology in the field. Practice shows that gearboxes, generators, rotor blades and even the technologically rather unsophisticated concrete bases are more vulnerable to permanent loads than originally assumed. Insurers are therefore well advised to integrate revision clauses into their contracts. These should provide, for example, that the operators check and replace components subject to wear, such as gearboxes, at regular intervals (e.g. every five years).
Condition monitoring systems are a help. Of course, though, the higher system costs are a negative for the business investment analysis. Besides, the global boom in the sector often entails long delivery times for unscheduled procurement of replacement parts. Looking ahead, three development paths in the wind industry sound promising. The risks are not spread evenly, however: At first glance, repowering is a fascinating market of the future. In principle, the substitution of state-of-the-art large-scale systems for outdated small plants allows a better wind harvest. At the same time, of course, the wear-and-tear on individual systems and thus the risk of disturbances and downtimes rises with every increase in their height.
By contrast, the insurance needs for all the new windpower facilities together do not necessarily have to be any higher than those for the many smaller onshore systems replaced: standard solutions have already emerged for the established onshore projects, including promotional loans (Deutsche Ausgleichsbank, KfW), the registration of easements and the maintenance of a minimum liquidity reserve. Export business also holds promise of growth.
Other countries are increasingly looking to wind power, and German companies have carved out a lead with their know-how in this forward-looking technology over the past few years. Good ways to gain a foothold in export markets are to seek typical export financing such as venture capital, enlist the support of large companies (e.g. from the utilities segment) or else sell windpower funds that have proved their worth abroad in the home market. For funds in particular, determinants such as political security, feed-in security, and currency and exchange-rate security are of major relevance.
The growth segment of offshore wind farms typically features very high funding volumes regularly topping EUR 1 bn along with particularly extensive technical risks. The technical problems already being observed in the onshore segment will probably occur much more frequently and with greater magnitude in offshore applications, according to critics. Similar expectations have prompted some wind generators to take a more circumspect approach. These include such prominent makers as General Electric and Enercon. Others continue to put their money on the offshore segment. Because of the large funding volumes involved alone the risk/return ratio needs to be scrutinised very closely for project-specific risks and for the capabilities of all project members such as operators and sponsors.
Thanks to the EEG there are virtually no market or marketing risks for wind power. The government has meanwhile assigned the job of providing the necessary network infrastructure to the established electric utilities; this is not an issue for the financial industry. The environmental risks (such as potential dangers for specific animal populations) have so far not been fully researched, but they do seem to be manageable. Problems with offshore systems may result from various factors ranging from the more complex foundation work and higher material wear from salt water, right up to the shorter weather-related time frame for upkeep and maintenance.
The financial industry will avoid risks that it cannot control; these include budget cost overruns, completion risk and the overall functioning of the technology. From a financing standpoint it is desirable to see a contractual framework that is as tightly knit as possible in which the risks – say along the technical interfaces – are adequately diversified, balanced and optimised. A great deal of potential is likely to lie in the formation of building and operating companies with expertise from a spectrum including experienced systems engineers, wind farm developers and major electric utilities.
source: Deutsche Bank