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建议 Hot Money into China Hits New Record
The People's Bank of China reported an all-time record rise in foreign reserves in the month of April, and analysts expect May to be even bigger. The main source of this inflow, however, may not be foreign-direct investment (FDI) or related to China's trade surplus.
Lehman Brothers says the discrepancy between FDI and inflows due to China's trade surplus, versus the rapid growth of its foreign-exchange reserves, suggests that 'hot money' is now accounting for the majority of FX inflows.
"The trade surplus and FDI inflows explain only 33% of the surge in FX reserves in April," says Ron Subbaraman, analyst at Lehman in Hong Kong.
He has charted the increase in Chinese FX reserves over the past five years versus its trade surplus and its FDI. It is common for FX reserves to grow more quickly than the surplus and FDI combined can explain.
The gap grew particularly large in early 2007, perhaps explained by portfolio investors buying renminbi assets to participate in the currency's appreciation. But the gap closed in the second half of the year.
Now the gap is back—and bigger than ever. In April, foreign reserves grew by $74.5 billion, to a total of $1.8 trillion. This follows what had been the record in January, when reserves grew by $61.8 billion. FDI and the trade surplus could account for only $24.3 billion of this rise, Lehman calculates, suggesting $50.2 billion of the reserve increase can't be readily explained.
Subbaraman says there is no public data that fully explains why FX reserves are growing so far out of proportion, or where this excess money is going. Some of it can be credited to mainland corporations borrowing more overseas. In the past, it was explained by foreign speculating in mainland real estate.
Other factors could include interest earned by Chinese companies on overseas assets, FDI outflows and the valuation effect on renminbi assets as the dollar depreciates. But Lehman suspects this is only part of the story, and that speculators are taking positions on rising Chinese interest rates and a strengthening renminbi.
Lumped together, this so-called 'hot money' is likely to head for riskier investments, and in the past has been destabilising to other countries because it can surge and then disappear quickly—as happened to other Asian countries in 1997-98 (although by no means is Lehman Brothers suggesting an impending crisis).
"This is the biggest such gap on record, and the biggest rise in China's foreign reserves on record," Subbaraman says. "It's interesting that even as China's trade surplus is narrowing, the pace of its accumulating foreign reserves has picked up."
Last weekend the central bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points—a move designed to buy up liquidity stemming from the country's balance-of-payments surplus, but one that is also likely to have attracted even more portfolio inflows.
中国热钱达到新记录[商业周刊]
中国人民银行报道四月份的外汇储备又创历史新高，分析家预计五月将更高。然而这些钱的主流，可能不是FDI(外国直接投资)或中国贸易顺差。
雷曼兄弟说FDI和注入量之间的差异被归因于中国的贸易顺差，相对快速增长的外汇储备，这说明“热钱”是外汇流入的主要形式。
“贸易顺差和FDI只占四月激增外汇储备的33%”，雷曼香港的分析师Ron Subbaraman说。
他绘制了过去五年中国外汇储备与外贸顺差和FDI的比较图，显示了外汇储备增长比贸易顺差和FDI结合增长快得多。
差距在2007年初尤其增大，这也许可以解释为组合投资者通过购买人民币资产来加入人民币升级。但是差距在下半年消失了。
现在差距又重新出现——并且比以往都大。在四月份，外汇储备增加了745亿美元，总额达到18000亿美元。这紧跟在一月份的记录之后，当时外汇储备增加了618亿美元。据雷曼估计，此次增长中FDI和贸易顺差合计仅为243亿美元，这意味着502亿的外汇储备增长很不好解释。
Subbaraman说现在还没有公开的数据能够充分解释为什么外汇储备的增长是如此不成比例，以及多出的这部分钱跑到哪里去了。其中一些可以解释为大陆公司从海外借了更多的款项。过去的解释是外国投机商投资中国的房地产。
其它的因素包括中国公司在海外的赢利，FDI外流，以及随着美元贬值而产生的人民币估值效应。但是雷曼怀疑这仅仅是部分因素，他们认为投机商看好中国提升的利率和强化的人民币。
综合起来说，这个所谓的“热钱”很可能走向风险投资，在过去它已经破坏了其它国家的稳定，因为它能够迅速地奔涌和消失——正如在1997-98年在亚洲国家发生的情况(尽管雷曼一点也不怀疑现在危机已迫在眉睫)。
“这是有史以来的最大差距，也是有史以来中国外汇储备最大的增长，”Subbaraman说。“有趣的是尽管中国的贸易顺差在缩小，它的外汇储备增长却越来越快。”
上周中央银行将利率提升了100个基点——旨在减少国际收支盈余产生的流动性，但这可能吸引更多的投资流入。
原文：http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jun2008/gb20080617_710765.htm
