东线无事?

Asia
Asia.view
All quiet on the eastern front? 东线无事？
Mar 26th 2008
From Economist.com
Every silver lining has a cloud
祸兮福所倚,福兮祸所伏

IN NORTH-EAST Asia run the world’s most potentially lethal geopolitical faultlines, along which historical animosities and devastating weaponry are arrayed. Yet for Panglossians, particularly American ones, the regional picture looks suddenly better, thanks to the promise of three new national leaders in little more than six months: Yasuo Fukuda, who became prime minister of Japan last September; Lee Myung-bak, who assumed South Korea’s presidency in February; and Ma Ying-jeou, who won Taiwan’s presidential election by a landslide and will take office on May 20th.
在东北亚潜伏着全球最致命的地缘政治冲突，伴随着由来已久的仇恨和毁灭性的武器部署。然而对于那些乐观主义者，尤其是美国人来说，地区前景一下子变好起来。这要归功于六个多月里产生的三位领导人的承诺：福田康夫，去年九月当选日本首相；李明博，今年二月成为下任总统；马英九，以压倒性多数赢得台湾地区选举，在五月二十日开始上任。
Each provides a patch for the Panglossian quilt. Japan’s relations with its neighbours deteriorated under the leadership of Mr Fukuda’s predecessor but one, Junichiro Koizumi, with his devil-may-care visits to the militarist Yasukuni war shrine. Mr Koizumi’s successor, Shinzo Abe, tried to restore trust, but never entirely succeeded because he openly espoused a nationalist agenda that denied Japan’s full wartime responsibility.
他们每个人都为乐观主义者打了一记强心剂。由于小泉纯一郎坚持他“神鬼会在意”的理由而参拜代表军国主义的靖国神社，日本与其邻国的关系在其任内不断恶化。小泉的继任者，安倍晋三，虽试图挽回邻国的信任，却由于公开支持军国主义者拒绝为战争负全部责任的言论而功败垂成。

Mr Fukuda, by contrast, has a family legacy to enshrine. Three decades ago, his father was also prime minister. Fukuda père reopened Japan’s relations with China and assured the region that his country had forever renounced force against its neighbours. This became known as the Fukuda Doctrine, and the son has warmly embraced it. Later this spring China’s president, Hu Jintao, will come to Tokyo to admire the cherry blossoms, a symbol of warming relations between Asia’s two biggest powers.
相比之下，福田康夫有参拜神庙的家庭传统。30年前，他的父亲也曾担任首相一职。福田“老爹”（père：法语，父亲）曾为中日关系打开新局面，并保证日本永远不会对其邻邦使用武力。这被称为是“福田主义”。福田康夫同样尊崇父亲的信条。今年晚春，中国国家主席胡锦涛将应邀赴东京赏樱花，这被看做是亚洲最强大的两个国家关系缓和的标志。
As for Mr Lee, a former businessman with pragmatic views and a taste for getting things done (his nickname is “Bulldozer”), he has promised quickly to improve South Korea’s ties with the United States and Japan, which became badly strained under his left-leaning predecessor, Roh Moo-hyun. Mr Roh took to America-bashing in a forlorn attempt to shore up his popularity. He also appeared to offer carrots without sticks to North Korea’s nuclear regime, frustrating American attempts to ensure a united front in getting North Korea to disarm. Mr Lee promises that South Korean aid to the North will henceforth be closely tied to progress on denuclearisation.
李明博，曾是一名注重实际和雷厉风行的商人（外号“推土机”）。他承诺尽快改善韩美、韩日关系。他的前任卢武铉曾情非得已的不与美国合作以增加其支持率。同时他还用“胡萝卜不加大棒”对待朝鲜核武装政权，导致美国迫使朝鲜解除武装的统一战线受到打击。这使韩美关系持续紧张。李明博则宣布，从此以后韩国对朝鲜的援助将与朝鲜“去核化”的进程挂钩。
Thirdly, the emphatic victory of Mr Ma—following an even bigger parliamentary landslide for his party, the Kuomintang (KMT), in January—cheers both Beijing and Washington, DC. During eight years in office, President Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party tried repeatedly to push Taiwan toward formal independence. Not only did that rile China, which insists that Taiwan is its province, but the United States, Taiwan’s protector, saw Mr Chen’s provocations as a threat to its own security, since they heightened the risk of military conflict with China.
另一方面，马英九的轻松取胜——在一月份国民党取得国会压倒性多数议席之后——同时得到了大陆政府与美国政府的祝贺。台湾领导人陈水扁在其执政的八年中，不断试图将台湾引向公开独立。这不仅激怒了大陆政府，而且让台湾的“监护人”美国认定陈水扁的挑衅增加了美国与中国发生军事冲突的几率，因而威胁到了其自身安全。
Mr Ma, by contrast, still asserts Taiwan’s sovereignty, but promises to be a “peacemaker, not a troublemaker”. Taiwan will not move towards independence, he says, but rather take steps to build trust and reduce the chances of military conflict. Indeed, he espouses not just closer economic ties with China but also a peace treaty, which Mr Hu also endorses.
相反的，马英九虽仍强调台湾自治，但保证要做“一个和平缔造者，而非麻烦制造者”。台湾不会走向独立，他说，建立互信和降低军事冲突几率才是当务之急。事实上，他不但支持与大陆更紧密的经济关系，而且与胡锦涛一样承认已达成的和平共识。
So some are starting to predict a golden era for North-East Asian security. Yet that seems premature. Start with Japan and China. Their blossoming relationship may now be hostage to how bloodily China handles anti-Chinese protests by Tibetans. And domestic problems make Mr Fukuda’s future as prime minister look shaky.
如此一来，有人开始预言东北亚安全的好日子要来了。这样说未免为时尚早。先来看看中国和日本，正在复苏的中日关系现在面临着中国政府如何解决反华“藏独”活动的问题。而且日本的国内问题已经让福田的位子不稳。
As for North Korea, though a more united front exists among the six nations meant to convince Kim Jong Il’s regime to dismantle its nuclear programmes, that unity has come about at least in part because of Mr Kim’s intransigence. The regime has now missed, by nearly three months, the deadline by which it promised a full declaration of those programmes.
关于朝核问题，虽然六方会谈各国达成了统一战线试图说服金正日政权拆除核设施，但这条战线因为金正日不肯妥协而产生裂痕。朝鲜承诺宣布完全放弃核武器计划的最后期限已经超过近三个月。
It may yet become clear that Mr Kim has no intention of surrendering his nuclear ambitions. If so, expect North Korea soon to start its old game of playing one neighbour off against another in search of aid and concessions. Meanwhile the nuclear threat, however feeble, remains.
可以说，金正日不想放弃核野心这一点越来越明显了。如果真是这样，朝鲜就是又想要在寻求援助和做出让步的游戏里渔翁得利了。同时，核讹诈虽然无力，但仍存在。
Finally, relations across the Taiwan Strait may well improve, starting with direct transport links—by air and sea—between the mainland and Taiwan. But China’s Communists might be expecting the impossible of Mr Ma. Even if he harbours secret hopes of eventual reunification, most Taiwanese would consider even a start to discussions about political integration wholly unacceptable.
台湾海峡两岸关系可能会通过空中与海上两岸直航得到改善。但中共仍期待着马英九做他不可能做得事。即使他私下里怀揣着最终两岸统一的希望，大多数台湾人可能会认为，即使开始关于统一的政治商谈也是完全不可接受的（译者注：无根据的妄言）。
Meanwhile, the Chinese already seem dismayed by some of Mr Ma’s pronouncements. The day after winning the presidency, he invited the Dalai Lama—whom the Communists accuse of masterminding the anti-Chinese riots in Tibet this month—to his inauguration. He also proudly mentioned that he attends a memorial each year for the victims of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. And soon after he becomes president, he is likely to want to buy American fighter jets, which President George Bush refrained from selling to Mr Chen.
同时，大陆似乎已被马英九的一些声明所打击。赢得选举的第二天，他邀请了达赖喇嘛——其被认作是“藏独”势力的策划者——参加他的就职典礼。他还自豪的称自己每年都参与对89动乱份子的祭奠。就职后不久，他可能要购买布什拒绝卖给陈水扁的美国战机。
So Mr Ma’s honeymoon may be brief. The tremors of recent years may not soon be felt in the Korean peninsula or the Taiwan Strait, but the faultlines still run deep, with plenty of potential for future shocks.
因此，马英九的蜜月期会很短。近年来的紧张气氛可能要过一段时间才能在朝鲜半岛和台湾海峡被感受到。但是，矛盾依然根深蒂固，并会在将来成为冲突的诱因。