Japan's balancing act

CHINESE INFLUENCE
Japan\\\\\\\'s balancing act
By Michael Auslin
Published: May 7, 2008

President Hu Jintao of China is in Japan this week, repaying Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda for his visit last autumn. It is the first time in a decade that a Chinese head of state has come to the land that most Chinese still love to hate.

In 1998, former President Jiang Zemin, clouded by Chinese accusations that Japan had not yet fully apologized for its wartime atrocities, visited Japan and left relations worse off than when he arrived. This time, a stronger, more confident China is sending messages of conciliation and Asian camaraderie.

For the first time, the Japanese are getting the Chinese diplomatic embrace already experienced by millions of Asians, from Indians to Singaporeans. The stakes are higher with Japan, though, for it remains Asia\\\\\\\'s largest economy by far and, whatever the pundits proclaim, is admired for its political and social stability, not to mention its sophisticated military. Chinese attempts to draw Japan closer to its orbit could have profound effects on the future of Asia.

Japan thus finds itself in a dilemma. Like almost all nations around the globe, the United States included, it doesn\\\\\\\'t know what to think of the Chinese colossus.

On the one hand, nearly 20 percent of Japan\\\\\\\'s exports go directly to China, and the mainland is the biggest exporter into Japan. Japanese firms employ 9 million Chinese inside China and joint enterprises have grown in recent years.

At the same time, Japanese watch warily as Beijing\\\\\\\'s military budget increases by double digits every year and as the People\\\\\\\'s Liberation Army deploys weapons systems like ballistic missiles, new submarines and advanced fighters that inherently threaten Japan\\\\\\\'s national security.

Tokyo also groans every time China signs a new free-trade agreement or political pact with Asian nations, seeing economic and political isolation just over the horizon.

Japan\\\\\\\'s political leaders know that closer economic relations are critical to their attempts to maintain a fragile economic recovery now threatened by the U.S. slowdown. Yet they worry that precisely the type of growth in China that indirectly helps Japan will result in greater Chinese influence and power in Asia. And given the still smoldering memories of World War II in China and traditional Japanese fears of Chinese hegemony in Asia, no Japanese leader can blithely dismiss fears of what China\\\\\\\'s ascendance means for Japan.

The result is a precarious balancing act, one that likely will grow more difficult over time. Tokyo understandably courts warmer relations with Beijing, but also seeks greater security assurances from Washington.

The Ministry of Defense hopes to buy more advanced defensive systems, from missile interceptors to the F-22 Raptor jet fighter. Finally, Tokyo looks to blunt (read: hedge) Chinese influence by trying to create stronger relations with other democracies in Asia, like South Korea, Australia and India. The goal, of course, is to ensure that the Chinese become less threatening and ultimately cooperative.

It is one thing to cobble together a fairly effective short-term deterrent to potential Chinese threats, but quite another to hope permanently to change China\\\\\\\'s preferences. What Tokyo fears most is that the ultimate guarantor of security in the Asia Pacific region, the United States, will decide to accommodate the expansion of Chinese influence or come to believe it too costly to maintain its strategic position in Asia. That would remove the strongest incentive for China to accommodate itself to the norms of international behavior that have kept the peace in the Pacific for the past six decades.

Beijing, too, knows that its current growth is dependent on peaceful relations with its neighbors, and that too aggressive a posture could result in a natural balancing of Asian nations against China. Yet in a region where nationalism is rife, territorial disputes fester, and arms races abound, miscalculation or misplaced hubris could lead to tragedy.

Japan\\\\\\\'s role as a democratic bulwark in Asia is thus more important than ever before. It can play a unique role in helping spread liberal systems and provide a clear model for national development. However, its politicians have to move beyond their petty domestic political squabbles so that the country can play a role commensurate with its economic power. The balancing will go on, but a Japan confidently accepting its regional responsibilities will be more able to work with its American partner to ensure that China\\\\\\\'s path remains a productive one.

Michael Auslin is a resident scholar in Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

日本的权衡之举

中国影响
日本的权衡之举
作者：Michael Auslin
2008年5月7日

作为对日本首相福田康夫去年秋天访问的回访，本周中国国家主席胡锦涛访问日本。这是十年来，许多中国民众对日本仍仇恨时，首位中国国家领导人来到这片土地。

1998年，中日关系乌云笼罩，中国人指控日本并未彻底为战争暴行谢罪，前主席江泽民访问日本，并在他离开时将关系进一步恶化。这次，一个更加强大更加自信的中国向日本及亚洲盟友传达出亲善的信息。

日本接到中国的外交示好后，这是第一次迅速得到从印度到新加坡百万计亚洲人的反应。这个赌注比日本要大，因其迄今一直是亚洲最大经济体，无论专家如何评论，也因其政局和社会稳定而受人钦慕，却不愿让人注意到它诡异的军事问题。中国试图将日本更进一步扯入它的影响圈，这将更加深刻影响到亚洲的未来。

因此，日本发现自己已进退维谷。如这世界上几乎所有的国家一样——包括美国在内，它也不知道怎么去看待这个中国巨人。

就一方面而言，日本近百分之二十的出口品直接运至中国，中国大陆也是日本最大的出口商。日资企业在中国雇佣了九百万中国人，合资企业近年也有所成长。

同时，日本谨慎关注着北京的军事预算以每年两位数速度增长，解放军部署类似弹道导弹、新式潜艇和先进战斗机等武器系统也自然威胁到日本的国家安全。

东京也在中国每次与亚洲国家签订新的自由贸易协定或政治条约时发出叹息，看来政经孤立政策已经远在天边了。

日本的政治领导人知道，在如今这个受美国经济衰退影响，试图保持脆弱的经济恢复脚步的时候，加强与中国更紧密的经济关系是举足轻重的。但是他们担心，中国目前的增长模式确实是对日本有间接帮助，但结果将是使中国在亚洲的影响和权力会更大。而且，就目前中国人对二战记忆的阴影仍未消散，而一直以来日本人对中国在亚洲霸权的恐惧，因而中国对日本的优势地位意味着什么，没有一个日本领导人能够轻松解除对此的恐惧。

结果是个危险的权衡之举，这一个有可能会随着时间变得更加困难。东京可理解地追求与北京更加缓和的关系，但同时也向华盛顿寻求更大的安全保障。

日本防卫省希望购买更多先进的防卫系统，从导弹拦截装置到F-22战斗机。最终，东京试图与其他亚洲民主国家——如韩国、澳大利亚和印度——建立更加强大的关系，从而减弱中国的影响。目的当然就是确保减少中国的威胁并最终使它与之合作。

这只是简单地把几样东西拼凑起来，在短期内遏制中国的潜在危险，但还有一个希望是能永久地改变中国的想法。东京最害怕的事情就是美国——这个亚太地区安全最终的保护者，决定要调整自身适应中国扩张的影响，或认为在亚洲继续保持其战略地位耗资过巨。这将让中国不再愿意把自己置身于国际间行为的规范中，而这些规范已使太平洋保持了六十年的和平。

北京也一样知道目前的发展是依靠着与邻国和平的关系，过于挑衅的姿态将会引起亚洲国家自然的对中国态度的权衡。但是在这个民族主义盛行、领土争端加剧、军备竞赛增多的地区，错误的估算或是不合时宜的嘲笑都会引向悲剧。

日本的角色是亚洲民主堡垒，因此它要比以前任何时候都要重要。它可以在一个协助扩展自由的体制里扮演一个独立的角色，或是为国家发展做出清晰地表率。但是，那里的政客必须要抛弃可怜的为内政所做的争吵，这样，国家才能扮演一个与其经济能量相当的角色。权衡还要继续，但是日本要自信地为这个地区负责，这样才能更有可能与它的美国盟友一起确保中国的道路是通向富有建设性的那一条。