10 Future Web Trends

We're well into the current era of the Web, commonly referred to as Web 2.0. Features of this phase of the Web include search, social networks, online media (music, video, etc), content aggregation and syndication (RSS), mashups (APIs), and much more. Currently the Web is still mostly accessed via a PC, but we're starting to see more Web excitement from mobile devices (e.g. iPhone) and television sets (e.g. XBox Live 360).

What then can we expect from the next 10 or so years on the Web? As NatC commented in this week's poll, the biggest impact of the Web in 10 years time won't necessarily be via a computer screen - "your online activity will be mixed with your presence, travels, objects you buy or act with." Also a lot of crossover will occur among the 10 trends below (and more) and there will be Web technologies that become enormously popular that we can't predict now.

Bearing all that in mind, here are 10 Web trends to look out for over the next 10 years...

1. Semantic Web

Sir Tim Berners-Lee's vision for a Semantic Web has been The Next Big Thing for a long time now. Indeed it's become almost mythical, like Moby Dick. In a nutshell, the Semantic Web is about machines talking to machines. It's about making the Web more 'intelligent', or as Berners-Lee himself described it: computers "analyzing all the data on the Web – the content, links, and transactions between people and computers." At other times, Berners-Lee has described it as "the application of weblike design to data" - for example designing for re-use of information.

As Alex Iskold wrote in The Road to the Semantic Web, the core idea of the Semantic Web is to create the meta data describing data, which will enable computers to process the meaning of things. Once computers are equipped with semantics, they will be capable of solving complex semantical optimization problems.

So when will the Semantic Web arrive? The building blocks are here already: RDF, OWL, microformats are a few of them. But as Alex noted in his post, it will take some time to annotate the world's information and then to capture personal information in the right way. Some companies, such as Hakia and Powerset and Alex's own AdaptiveBlue, are actively trying to implement the Semantic Web. So we are getting close, but we are probably a few years off still before the big promise of the Semantic Web is fulfilled.

Semantic Web pic by dullhunk

2. Artificial Intelligence

Possibly the ultimate Next Big Thing in the history of computing, AI has been the dream of computer scientists since 1950 - when Alan Turing introduced the Turing test to test a machine's capability to participate in human-like conversation. In the context of the Web, AI means making intelligent machines. In that sense, it has some things in common with the Semantic Web vision.

We've only begun to scratch the surface of AI on the Web. Amazon.com has attempted to introduce aspects of AI with Mechanical Turk, their task management service. It enables computer programs to co-ordinate the use of human intelligence to perform tasks which computers are unable to do. Since its launch on 2 November 2005, Mechanical Turk has gradually built up a following - there is a forum for "Turkers" called Turker Nation, which appears to have light-to-medium level patronage. However we reported in January that Mturk isn't being used as much as the initial hype period in Nov-Dec 05.

Nevertheless, AI has a lot of promise on the Web. AI techniques are being used in "search 2.0" companies like Hakia and Powerset. Numenta is an exciting new company by tech legend Jeff Hawkins, which is attempting to build a new, brain-like computing paradigm - with neural networks and cellular automata. In english this means that Numenta is trying to enable computers to tackle problems that come easy to us humans, like recognizing faces or seeing patterns in music. But since computers are much faster than humans when it comes to computation, we hope that new frontiers will be broken - enabling us to solve the problems that were unreachable before.

3. Virtual Worlds

Second Life gets a lot of mainstream media attention as a future Web system. But at a recent Supernova panel that Sean Ammirati attended, the discussion touched on many other virtual world opportunities. The following graphic summarizes it well:

Looking at Korea as an example, as the 'young generation' grows up and infrastructure is built out, virtual worlds will become a vibrant market all over the world over the next 10 years.

It's not just about digital life, but also making our real life more digital. As Alex Iskold explained, on one hand we have the rapid rise of Second Life and other virtual worlds. On the other we are beginning to annotate our planet with digital information, via technologies like Google Earth.

4. Mobile

Mobile Web is another Next Big Thing on slow boil. It's already big in parts of Asia and Europe, and it received a kick in the US market this year with the release of Apple's iPhone. This is just the beginning. In 10 years time there will be many more location-aware services available via mobile devices; such as getting personalized shopping offers as you walk through your local mall, or getting map directions while driving your car, or hooking up with your friends on a Friday night. Look for the big Internet companies like Yahoo and Google to become key mobile portals, alongside the mobile operators.

Companies like Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry and Microsoft have been active in the Mobile Web for years now, but one of the main issues with Mobile Web has always been usability. The iPhone has a revolutionary UI that makes it easier for users to browse the Web, using zooming, pinching and other methods. Also, as Alex Iskold noted, the iPhone is a strategy that may expand Apple's sphere of influence, from web browsing to social networking and even possibly search.

So even despite the iPhone hype, in the US at least (and probably other countries when it arrives) the iPhone will probably be seen in 10 years time as the breakthrough Mobile Web device.

5. Attention Economy

The Attention Economy is a marketplace where consumers agree to receive services in exchange for their attention. Examples include personalized news, personalized search, alerts and recommendations to buy. The Attention Economy is about the consumer having choice - they get to choose where their attention is 'spent'. Another key ingredient in the attention game is relevancy. As long as the consumer sees relevant content, he/she is going to stick around - and that creates more opportunities to sell.

Expect to see this concept become more important to the Web's economy over the next decade. We're already seeing it with the likes of Amazon and Netflix, but there is a lot more opportunity yet to explore from startups.

Image from The Attention Economy: An Overview, by Alex Iskold

6. Web Sites as Web Services

Alex Iskold wrote in March that as more and more of the Web is becoming remixable, the entire system is turning into both a platform and the database. Major web sites are going to be transformed into web services - and will effectively expose their information to the world. Such transformations are never smooth - e.g. scalability is a big issue and legal aspects are never simple. But, said Alex, it is not a question of if web sites become web services, but when and how.

The transformation will happen in one of two ways. Some web sites will follow the example of Amazon, del.icio.us and Flickr and will offer their information via a REST API. Others will try to keep their information proprietary, but it will be opened via mashups created using services like Dapper, Teqlo and Yahoo! Pipes. The net effect will be that unstructured information will give way to structured information - paving the road to more intelligent computing.

Note that we can also see this trend play out currently with widgets and especially Facebook in 2007. Perhaps in 10 years time the web services landscape will be much more open, because the 'walled garden' problem is still with us in 2007.

Image from Web 3.0: When Web Sites Become Web Services, by Alex Iskold

7. Online Video / Internet TV

This is a trend that has already exploded on the Web - but you still get the sense there's a lot more to come yet. In October 2006 Google acquired the hottest online video property on the planet, YouTube. Later on that same month, news came out that the founders of Kazaa and Skype were building an Internet TV service, nicknamed The Venice Project (later named Joost). In 2007, YouTube continues to dominate. Meanwhile Internet TV services are slowly getting off the ground.

Our network blog last100 has an excellent overview of the current Internet TV landscape, with reviews of 8 Internet TV apps. Read/WriteWeb's Josh Catone also reviewed 3 of them - Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo.

It's fair to say that in 10 years time, Internet TV will be totally different to what it is today. Higher quality pictures, more powerful streaming, personalization, sharing, and much more - it's all coming over the next decade. Perhaps the big question is: how will the current mainstream TV networks (NBC, CNN, etc) adapt?

Zattoo, from Internet Killed The Television Star: Reviews of Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo, and More, by Josh Catone

8. Rich Internet Apps

As the current trend of hybrid web/desktop apps continues, expect to see RIA (rich internet apps) continue to increase in use and functionality. Adobe's AIR platform (Adobe Integrated Runtime) is one of the leaders, along with Microsoft with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix is Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform and there are several other startups offering RIA platforms. Let's not forget also that Ajax is generally considered to be an RIA - it remains to be seen though how long Ajax lasts, or whether there will be a '2.0'.

As Ryan Stewart wrote for Read/WriteWeb back in April 2006 (well before he joined Adobe), "Rich Internet Apps allow sophisticated effects and transitions that are important in keeping the user engaged. This means developers will be able to take the amazing changes in the Web for granted and start focusing on a flawless experience for the users. It is going to be an exciting time for anyone involved in building the new Web, because the interfaces are finally catching up with the content."

The past year has proven Ryan right, with Adobe and Microsoft duking it out with RIA technologies. And there's a lot more innovation to happen yet, so in 10 years time I can't wait to see what the lay of the RIA land is!

9. International Web

As of 2007, the US is still the major market in the Web. But in 10 years time, things might be very different. China is often touted as a growth market, but other countries with big populations will also grow - India and African nations for example.

For most web 2.0 apps and websites (R/WW included), the US market makes up over 50% of their users. Indeed, comScore reported in November 2006 that 3/4 of traffic to top websites is international. comScore said that 14 of the top 25 US Web properties now attract more visitors from outside the US than from within. That includes the top 5 US properties - Yahoo! Sites, Time Warner Network, Microsoft, Google Sites, and eBay.

However, it is still early days and the revenues are not big in international markets at this point. In 10 years time, revenue will probably be flowing from the International Web.

10. Personalization

Personalization has been a strong theme in 2007, particularly with Google. Indeed Read/WriteWeb did a feature week on Personalizing Google. But you can see this trend play out among a lot of web 2.0 startups and companies - from last.fm to MyStrands to Yahoo homepage and more.

What can we expect over the next decade? Recently we asked Sep Kamvar, Lead Software Engineer for Personalization at Google, whether there will be a 'Personal PageRank' system in the future. He replied:

"We have various levels of personalization. For those who are signed up for Web History, we have the deepest personalization, but even for those who are not signed up for Web History, we personalize your results based on what country you are searching from. As we move forward, personalization will continue to be a gradient; the more you share with Google, the more tailored your results will be."

If nothing else, it'll be fascinating to track how Google uses personalization over the coming years - and how it deals with the privacy issues.

Conclusion

We've covered a lot of ground in this post, so tell us know what you think of our predictions. What other Web trends do you forsee over the next decade?

十大未来互联网趋势

我们很满意自己进入的当前网络纪元，通常被称为Web 2.0。这个阶段互联网的特征包括搜索，社区网络，在线媒体（音乐，视频等），内容聚合和联合供稿（RSS），mashups (APIs)，还有更多。当前互联网大多数仍然通过PC访问，但是我们开始看到更多从移动设备（比如iPhone）和电视机（比如XBox Live 360）而来的互联网因素。

那么未来的十年或更多我们能从互联网上期望些什么呢？就像 NatC commented 这个星期的民意测验所说，十年之内互联网最大的冲击是通过电脑屏幕访问互联网将不是必需－－“你的在线活动会和你的存在，旅行，你购买或扮演的对象混合在一起。”同样很多交叉会在下面提到的十大趋势（或更多）中发生，而且里面也会有我们现在不能预言的会变得非常流行的网络技术。

在脑子里记住那些，这里是接下来十年里需要留神的十大未来互联网趋势……

1、语义互联网

现在，Tim Berners-Lee 的关于语义互联网的想象已经成为下一件大事很长时间了。的确它几乎接近神话，就像 Moby Dick。简单说来，语义互联网就是关于机器和机器通话。关于使互联网更加的‘智能’，或者像Berners-Lee他自己描述的：电脑“分析网络上的所有数据－内容，链接，然后在人和电脑之间相互影响。”在其他的时候，Berners-Lee 曾经这样描述这它“对数据像互联网那样设计的应用程序”－比如对信息的再利用设计。

像 Alex Iskold 在 The Road to the Semantic Web 中写的那样，语义互联网的核心思想是建立meta资料（后分析数据？）来描述数据，它会使电脑可以处理事物的含意。一旦电脑具备了语义功能，它们就有能力解决复杂的语义最优化问题。

那么语义互联网什么时候到来呢？积木已经在这里准备好了：RDF，OWL，microformats是他们中的一些。但是就像 Alex 在他的文中提到的，要花一段时间去注解这个世界的信息，然后以正确的方式去获取人个信息。一些公司，就像 Hakia and Powerset 和 Alex 的 AdaptiveBlue，正在努力去实现语义互联网。我们正在接近，但在语义互联网这个大承诺履行之前我们可能也完蛋了有些日子了。

语义互联网图片 by dullhunk

2、人工智能

人工智能可能是计算机历史上的最终下一件大事，从1950以来它就是电脑科学家的梦想－－当 Alan Turing 引进图灵机去测试机器分辨人的能力－－比如通过谈话。从网络的意义上说，人工智能意味着制造智能机器。从这个意义上说，它和语义互联网的想象有共通的东西。

我们只是开始在网络上想象人工智能的外表。 Amazon.com 已经开始尝试通过 Mechanical Turk ，他们的任务管理服务，向人们介绍人工智能的样子。它能使电脑程序协调使用人的智能去执行那些电脑不能做到的任务。从2005年11月2日它投放市场以来，Mechanical Turk已经逐渐的建立起一批追随者－－有一个专门为“Turkers”建立的论坛叫Turker Nation，它看起来拥有轻到中等程度的赞助。无论如何，我们一月份报导的 Mturk 没有使用像十一到十二月5日那样的首写字母大写宣传。

虽然如此，人工智能在互联网上有一大堆的允诺。人工智能技术在像 Hakia and Powerset 这样的“搜索 2.0”公司投入使用。Numenta 是一家由技术传奇人物 Jeff Hawkins 创建的令人兴奋的新公司，它试图通过神经网络和细胞自动控制建立一个新的，类人脑的范例。这意味着 Numenta 试图让电脑去处理一些对人来说很简单的问题，比如识别面部或者在音乐中领会模式。但是因为电脑比人类快很多倍，当计算时，我们希望它突破新的界限－－可以解决我们以前不能达到的问题。

3、虚拟世界

第二人生以一个未来网络系统的身份引起了很多主流媒体的注意。但是最近在 Sean Ammirati 维护的超新星小组，讨论触及了很多其它的虚拟世界技术，下面的图总结得很好：

就拿韩国作为一个例子，随着‘年轻的一代’的长大，基础结构建造好了，在接下来的十年虚拟世界会变成一个活跃的市场波及全球。

它不仅只是关于数字生活，也使我们的真实生活更加数字化。就像 Alex Iskold 说明的，一方面我们有第二人生和其它虚拟世界的快速增长。在另一方面，我们开始用数字信息注释这个星球，通过像Google Earth这样的技术。

4、移动网络

移动网络是在 slow boil 上的另一个下一件大事。它在亚洲的一些地方和欧洲已经很壮大，而且随着今年苹果iPhone的发布它在美国市场也得到一股冲力。这只是一个开始。在十年之内会有很多通过移动设备实现的定位服务出现：比如路过本地购物商场时得到私人出价提议，或者当你驾车时取得地图导航，或者在一个星期五的晚上与你的朋友联结。寻找一家像Yahoo和Google这样大的网络公司作为移动关键词入口，会有移动操作员在旁边。

Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry 和 Microsoft 这些公司已经在移动网络活跃多年，但是主要移动网络的一个发布已经可以使用。iPhone具有一个革命性的用户界面，它使用图像缩放，收聚和其它的方法，使用户浏览网络更加容易。同样，像 Alex Iskold 提到的那样，iPhone是一个可能扩大苹果公司影响力领域的策略，从网络浏览到社交网络甚至可能是搜索。

所以即使不管iPhone的宣传，至少在美国（也可能是它抵达的其它国家），十年之内iPhone都可能会被看为是移动网络设备的新突破。

5、注意力经济

注意力经济是一个消费者同意用他们的注意力交换服务的市场。示例包括个人新闻，个人搜索，快讯和推荐购买。注意力经济是说明消费者有选择权－－他们选择他们的注意力‘花’在哪里。另一个注意力游戏中的关键因素是关联。在消费者看到关联内容的时候，他／她可能会粘在那周围－－这就创造了更多销售机会。

料想这个概念在接下来的十年在网络经济中会越来越重要。我们已经看到它受到mazon 和 Netflix的喜爱，但是新兴公司去探索还有更多的机会。

图像来自 The Attention Economy: An Overview, by Alex Iskold

6、网站即服务

Alex Iskold 在三月写过：随着越来越多的网络可再混合，整个系统正在变成既是一个平台和又是一个数据库。主要的网站正在转化成为提供网络服务－－这会更有效的向世界传播它们的信息。这种转化从来都不是平滑的－－举例来说，可行性是一个大问题，还有法律方面从来都不是简单的。但是，Alex 说过，这不是网站是否变成网络服务的问题，而是何时和如何的问题。
转化会以两种方式中的一种来发生。一些网站会跟随Amazon的方式，del.icio.us 和 Flickr 会通过REST API提供他们的信息。其它的则保持他们的信息专有，但是它会建立像Dapper, Teqlo 和 Yahoo! Pipes这样的应用服务，通过mashups开放。网络效应将会使非结构化信息让路给结构化信息－－为更智能的计算铺平道路。

注意到当前我们也能看到这个趋势和widgets特别是Facebook在2007年兴起。或许在接下来十年时间里网络服务的前景会更加开放，因为在2007年‘带墙的花园’问题一直跟着我们。


图像来自 Web 3.0: When Web Sites Become Web Services, by Alex Iskold

7、在线视频／网络电视

这是一个已经在网络上爆炸了的趋势－－但是你仍然有那种感觉：还会有更多东西出现。在2006年10月，Google获得了这个星球上最火爆的在线视频网站，YouTube，的所有权。同一个月的后几天，爆出了Kazaa和Skype的创始人正在建立一个网络电视服务，昵称The Venice Project（后来命名Joost）。在2007年，YouTube持续保持优势，同时网络电视服务也慢慢取得进展。

我们的网络博客 last100 在 8个网络电视应用的浏览 这篇文章中对现在网络电视的前景有一个很好的概述。Read/WriteWeb 的 Josh Catone 也 看了3个 －－Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo。

可以非常公平的说，在十年的时间内，网络电视会和今天有彻底的区别。更高质量的图像，更强大的流量，个性化，分享，还有更多－－他们都将在接下来的十年到来。或许现在最大的问题是：现在的主流电视网络（NBC，CNN等）如何适应这股潮流？


Zattoo, from Internet Killed The Television Star: Reviews of Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo, and More, by Josh Catone

8、丰富互联网应用

在当前网络／桌面应用混合趋势持续的情况下，更期待看到RIA (rich internet apps)在使用和功能性增长的持续。Adobe的AIR平台（Adobe Integrated Runtime）是领导者中的一个，连同微软的Windows Presentation Foundation，混种的Laszlo和它的开源OpenLaszlo platform，还有很多其它的启动提供RIA平台服务。我们不要忘了Ajax通常也被认为是一个RIA－－它能持续多久，或者它是否是一个‘2.0’还尚待分晓。

正如2006年4月（正好在他加入Adobe之前） Ryan Stewart 为 Read/WriteWeb所写的，“丰富互联网应用允许复杂的效果和转换，这对保持用户忙碌非常重要。这意味着开发商能以惊人的变化，在网上发放，并集中精力为用户开发完美的体验。这对正在建造新一代网络的任何人来说都是一个令人兴奋的时刻，接口终于赶上了内容。”

过去的几年证明 Ryan 是对的，由于Adobe和微软各自主推他们的RIA技术。还有更多的改革就要发生了，所以在十年时间内，我都等不急想看到什么地方能放下RIA的位置！

9、国际互联网

在2007年，美国仍旧是互联网的主要市场。但是十年之内，事情将会有很大的改变。中国一直被吹捧为一个增长的市场，但是其他有着巨大人口的国家也会同样增长－－比如印度和非洲一大票国家。

对大多数Web 2.0程序和网站（包括 R／WW），美国市场占50 ％以上的用户。当然，comScore 2006年11月报道3／4流量最高的网站是国际性的。comScore 说25个流量最高的美国网站中的14个在美国之外吸引的访问者比国内多。这其中包括了最有钱的5个美国财团－－Yahoo! 网站, Time Warner Network, Microsoft, Google 网站, 和 eBay.

然而，现在仍然为时过早，在国际互联网上这点的收入仍然不大。在未来的十年时间里，收会从国际互联网里大量流出。

10、个性化

个性化在2007年是一个强大的主题，特别是对Google。Read/WriteWeb甚至做了一周个性Google的专题。但是你能看到这个趋势正在一群Web 2.0网站和公司中兴起－－从last.fm 到 MyStrands 到 Yahoo homepage 还有更多。

下一个十年我们能期待什么呢？最近我们问了 Sep Kamvar，Google个性化的软件工程师带头人，未来是否会有一个‘个人PageRank’系统，他说：

   “我们有很多个性化的标准。对那些为了网络历史而注册的用户，我们有最深的个性化，但是甚至对那些没有为网络历史注册的用户，我们根据你从哪个国家搜索标记你的结果。随着我们前进，个性化会继续保持一个倾斜度；你和Google分享得越多，你得到的结果就会越适合。”

如果没有别的事，跟踪Google在接下来的几年内如何使用个性化－－还有他如何处理隐私问题，将非常吸引人。

结论

我们在这篇文章里涵盖了很多领域，那么告诉我们你对我们的预言是怎么想的，还有在下一个十年你还预见到了其他的什么互联网趋势？